CHINA COVID 19


March 21st, 2020.
Fabio Gori, University of Rome Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy.

The new infections and the total ones of the COVID19 in China are examined in the following figure, in linear scale. The asymptotic value is around 80,000 cases. 


 The forecast of the new infections is done by using the Malthus exponential curve and the Verhulst curve (also called S-shaped or logistic curve).

The forecast are made beginning from certain days that appeared important, as February 1st, 6th, 11th and 15th, as shown from the figure in logarithmic scale, which evidences the new cases.


The exam of the figure, in linear scale, indicates that a correct forecast, up to the total number of 81,400 infections is possible and almost feasible when the collected data are significant and enough large.


During the next days I will examine the forecast of the new cases in the other countries involved in the COVID19 pandemia.

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