ITALY COVID19

March 30th, 2020.
Fabio Gori, University of Rome Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy.

The update of today is in the following figure. The asymptotic value is around 105,000.





The following figure presents the same data per 1000 capita. The asymptotic value is around 1.7. 




March 28th, 2020.

The update of today is in the following figure. The asymptotic valued is above 100,000.




The ratio with 1000 inhabitants is also calculated.


March 27th, 2020

The update of today is in the following figure. The asymptotic valued is around 100,000.

 

March 25th, 2020.

 I have examined the situation of the infections in Italy, as it appears from the data up to March 24rd.

 The first two figures show the new and total cases of COVID19 in linear and logaritmic scales.

 The linear figure shows a trend which appears close to exponential, while the logartmic one shows a clear change of the logartmic linear trend.
 



The next two figures present the forecast made with the Malthus and Verhulst equations, in linear and logaritmic scales.
According to the Verhults equation the forecast is to reach a number of  around 83450 infections by the end of April.


The data have been revisitaded in comparison to two days ago and according to slight different data the final number has increased.

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