WELCOME

Welcome letter of March 21st, 2020, first day of the Spring 2020.

 Dear Friend,

 today is the first day of the Spring 2020.

 In this dramatic period I have decided to spend some of my time, as a researcher, to share results of some scientific researches, devoted to forecast (or to try to forecast) what is going to happen in the near future.

 My thoughts are going to the people who work in these days to help the other human beings in great difficulty because of the COVID19 pandemia.

 I hope to have your attention and interest 

Fabio Gori, University of Rome Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy.

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COVID19 DATA AND FORECAST IN EU AND US, UPDATE OF APRIL 5th, 2020.

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April 5th, 2020. Fabio Gori, University of Rome Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy. www.termofluidodinamica.it   eucovid19.blogspot.com usacovid19.blogspot.com covid19forecast.blogspot.com   forbigaio.blogspot.com Today I have assembled data and forecast of the April 3rd, 2020, of the COVID 19, presenting the total values  of EU, US, Italy, France, Germany, Spain, and United Kingdom for the first time, as well as the data and forecast for 1000 capita. The forecast of the new cases for Italy has been posted in this blog, with the trend to decrease during the month of April, but I have reported it also here. EU 27. The forecast of the total cases is toward over 760,000, while the same data, rated per 1000 capita, is 1.7. United States. The forecast of the total cases is toward over 460,000, while the same data, rated per 1000 capita, is 1.4. Italy. The forecast of the total cases is toward over 110,000, while the same data, rated per 1000 capita, is 1
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COVID19 DATA AND FORECAST IN EU AND US, UPDATE OF APRIL 7th, 2020.

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April 7 th, 2020. Fabio Gori, University of Rome Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy. www.termofluidodinamica.it   covid19forecast.blogspot.com eucovid19.blogspot.com usacovid19.blogspot.com   forbigaio.blogspot.com Today I have assembled data and forecast of the April 6 th 2020 of the COVID 19, presenting the  forecast of the total and new cases in Italy and EU, the total ones in USA, as well as data and forecast for 1000 capita. Italy. The forecast of the total cases  is over 108,000 and the same data rated per 1000 capita is 1.8. Today I present for the third day the decrease of the new cases in Italy, showing the same forecast done on April 4th, but where I have put also the new data of the 5th and 6th of April. As is shown by the figure the forecast seems to be still valid since the real data presents oscillations around the Verhulst forecast, which is a mean one.   EU. The forecast of the total infections is somewhat above 700,000, while the same data, rated per
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COVID19 FORECAST OF THE DECREASE OF NEW CASES IN CHINA AND ITALY

Immagine
April 5th, 2020. Fabio Gori, University of Rome Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy. www.termofluidodinamica.it   covid19forecast.blogspot.com   forbigaio.blogspot.com usacovid19.blogspot.com eucovid19.blogspot.com Today I have forecasted the increase and decrease of the new cases of COVID19 applying the equation of Malthus and Verhulst to China and Italy. As far as China is concerned, the increase of the new cases follows the exponential increase of Malthus, but, after the maximum, the Verhulst equation is required, which appears in reasonable agreement to the real data happened in China. The same procedure has been applied to the new cases in Italy showing a trend in agreement to the real data available up to today, during the increase and the decrease. The increase follows the Malthus equation up to the maximum, while the decrease requires the Verhulst equation. From the present forecast it is possible to expect a small number of new cases by the end of this month of April.
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