COVID19 FORECAST OF THE DECREASE OF NEW CASES IN CHINA AND ITALY

April 5th, 2020.
Fabio Gori, University of Rome Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy.
www.termofluidodinamica.it 
covid19forecast.blogspot.com
 forbigaio.blogspot.com
usacovid19.blogspot.com
eucovid19.blogspot.com

Today I have forecasted the increase and decrease of the new cases of COVID19 applying the equation of Malthus and Verhulst to China and Italy.

As far as China is concerned, the increase of the new cases follows the exponential increase of Malthus, but, after the maximum, the Verhulst equation is required, which appears in reasonable agreement to the real data happened in China.



The same procedure has been applied to the new cases in Italy showing a trend in agreement to the real data available up to today, during the increase and the decrease.
The increase follows the Malthus equation up to the maximum, while the decrease requires the Verhulst equation.
From the present forecast it is possible to expect a small number of new cases by the end of this month of April.
 The results are presented in linear and logaritmic scales.

Commenti

  1. Unknown5 aprile 2020 alle ore 02:59

    Direi che è molto interessante e utile per muoversi in questa situazione complicata e non sempre facile da capire. 👌👍

    RispondiElimina

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