COVID19 DATA AND FORECAST IN EU AND US, UPDATE OF MAY 7th, 2020.

May 7th, 2020.
Fabio Gori, University of Rome Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy. 

https://didattica.uniroma2.it/docenti/curriculum/4295-Fabio-Gori
https://covid19forecast.blogspot.com/
https://eucovid19.blogspot.com/
https://usacovid19.blogspot.com/ 
https://forbigaio.blogspot.com/

Today I have assembled the COVID 19 data of May 6th, 2020, presenting the forecast for Italy, UK, EU, USA.

Italy.
The decrease forecast of the total actually infected cases is in agreement with the datum of May 6th, 2020.
The forecast of the deaths is over 33.000.
The forecast of the new infections, published for the first time on April 4th, is confirmed to decrease in agreement with the datum of May 6th.




UK.
The  forecast of the total actually infected cases is over 226,000.
The new infections are still in a plateu. The tredn to decrease is not yet explicit.
The trend of the deaths is over 119,000.

EU27
The forecast of the total cases is over 1,059,000.
The decrease of the new cases, posted on April 8th with the data of April 7th,  is forecasted in agreement with the datum of May 6th, as well as the forecast of the new deaths.
Today I am presenting also the data per 1000 capita of the new infections and the deaths in the 27 countries of the EU.






USA
The forecast of the total cases is over 1,340,000, while the same data, rated per 1000 capita, is over 4.1.  The decrease of the new cases, posted on April 13th, is in agreement with the datum of May 6th.





Commenti

Posta un commento

Post popolari in questo blog

COVID19 DATA AND FORECAST IN EU AND US, UPDATE OF APRIL 5th, 2020.

Immagine
April 5th, 2020. Fabio Gori, University of Rome Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy. www.termofluidodinamica.it   eucovid19.blogspot.com usacovid19.blogspot.com covid19forecast.blogspot.com   forbigaio.blogspot.com Today I have assembled data and forecast of the April 3rd, 2020, of the COVID 19, presenting the total values  of EU, US, Italy, France, Germany, Spain, and United Kingdom for the first time, as well as the data and forecast for 1000 capita. The forecast of the new cases for Italy has been posted in this blog, with the trend to decrease during the month of April, but I have reported it also here. EU 27. The forecast of the total cases is toward over 760,000, while the same data, rated per 1000 capita, is 1.7. United States. The forecast of the total cases is toward over 460,000, while the same data, rated per 1000 capita, is 1.4. Italy. The forecast of the total cases is toward over 110,000, while the same data, rated per 1000 capita, is 1
Continua a leggere

COVID19 DATA AND FORECAST IN EU AND US, UPDATE OF APRIL 7th, 2020.

Immagine
April 7 th, 2020. Fabio Gori, University of Rome Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy. www.termofluidodinamica.it   covid19forecast.blogspot.com eucovid19.blogspot.com usacovid19.blogspot.com   forbigaio.blogspot.com Today I have assembled data and forecast of the April 6 th 2020 of the COVID 19, presenting the  forecast of the total and new cases in Italy and EU, the total ones in USA, as well as data and forecast for 1000 capita. Italy. The forecast of the total cases  is over 108,000 and the same data rated per 1000 capita is 1.8. Today I present for the third day the decrease of the new cases in Italy, showing the same forecast done on April 4th, but where I have put also the new data of the 5th and 6th of April. As is shown by the figure the forecast seems to be still valid since the real data presents oscillations around the Verhulst forecast, which is a mean one.   EU. The forecast of the total infections is somewhat above 700,000, while the same data, rated per
Continua a leggere

COVID19 FORECAST OF THE DECREASE OF NEW CASES IN CHINA AND ITALY

Immagine
April 5th, 2020. Fabio Gori, University of Rome Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy. www.termofluidodinamica.it   covid19forecast.blogspot.com   forbigaio.blogspot.com usacovid19.blogspot.com eucovid19.blogspot.com Today I have forecasted the increase and decrease of the new cases of COVID19 applying the equation of Malthus and Verhulst to China and Italy. As far as China is concerned, the increase of the new cases follows the exponential increase of Malthus, but, after the maximum, the Verhulst equation is required, which appears in reasonable agreement to the real data happened in China. The same procedure has been applied to the new cases in Italy showing a trend in agreement to the real data available up to today, during the increase and the decrease. The increase follows the Malthus equation up to the maximum, while the decrease requires the Verhulst equation. From the present forecast it is possible to expect a small number of new cases by the end of this month of April.
Continua a leggere